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Stop the LTE Madness

September 30, 2011

Stop the LTE Madness

Every time a telco operator in an emerging market announces yet another wide rollout of LTE, I cringe. LTE - short for long-term evolution - is the next technology standard set to upgrade current 3G+ / HSxPA telecommunications networks in the coming years.

In a recent interview with Telecoms IQ, Alan Hadden, president of the GSA, said that LTE is one of the most important mobile technologies to have been developed.

"LTE is the catalyst for extending the benefits of broadband Internet access to the mass market in all regions, and will help to narrow the digital divide. LTE is the fastest developing mobile communications technology ever and represents the next user experience of mobile broadband by offering higher downlink and uplink speeds, more capacity and, importantly, much lower latency."

The cost? Hundreds of billions of dollars.

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for adopting cutting-edge technology, but do your consumers actually want and need LTE right now? Ask if any of your customers actually know what LTE means. Chances are that you will get a puzzled look.

Telco operators - particularly those in emerging markets - still have to fill their 3G networks and get their customers to take up mobile data plans. It's like buying your 16-year-old teenager a brand new Ferrari when he hasn't even passed his driving license test.

For example, most telco operators generate only small percentage of average revenue per user (ARPU) from data. In the Middle East this figure includes SMS, so chances are that only part of that figure comes from actual data consumption that would require a 3G+ data network.

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In emerging markets - more so than in developed markets - smartphone penetration is still very low.

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Even among customers that have smartphones, at best half subscribe to mobile data plans and use data only via WiFi at home or in the office.

In countries with poor fixed broadband roll-outs, 3G+ mobile broadband adoption is promising and the potential for further growth is significant. However, high mobile broadband prices and relatively low PC penetration are hindering more widespread adoption. In fact, most emerging market telco operators are sitting on half-empty 3G networks. Yet they are already planning to roll out LTE to offer faster speeds - which consumers don't really yet need or demand from their telcos.

Don't invest in technology for the sake of technology. Latest generation or not.

Consumers don't want technology. Consumers want compelling content and services.

As long as it is delivered in a convenient and user-friendly manner, it doesn't really matter what the underlying technology is. In fact, 3G networks started appearing in the early 2000s, but didn't really take off until one company figured out how to deliver great content and services: Apple. With the iPhone's introduction in 2007, Apple jumpstarted the need for mobile broadband. Yet ironically, the first iPhone ran on 2.5G/EDGE, not the latest 3G networks that AT&T had already introduced in 2004!

I'm not saying to not ever invest in LTE. I'm saying telecommunications operators should time your investments when your customers actually need LTE.

Of course, my friends working for various network vendors would point out the long-term cost and spectrum efficiency benefits of LTE. And I would certainly have to agree with them. Yet, telco operators still have to recoup their investments in 3G and in the recent HSxPA upgrades.

Invest in compelling mobile data content and services first to drive the adoption of mobile data in the first place. Moreover, telecommunications operators should price mobile broadband to get massmarket acceptance. Once there's demand - and your 3G networks are fully utilized, then adopt LTE. Until then, CEOs and CTOs, hold your LTE horses.



Andre-Popov_small.jpgAbout the author: Andre Popov is a partner in Peppers & Rogers Group's TIME practice. Contact him at andre.popov@peppersandrogersgroup.com.





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